If asked if they thought Iran would launch a direct attack on Israel most people would answer, “No way. They’re not that stupid.” For sure, such an attack would draw an immediate and potentially catastrophic response from the Israelis. Israel’s air force is the most powerful in the region and the country possesses nuclear weapons. In addition, Israel would enjoy the support of many countries for its counterattack (as long as the nukes were kept locked up). This seems like a no-brainer but there is a triad of evil influences that may tempt the Iranian leadership into a foolish and costly mistake.
It begins with the fear that Israel will attack them first in an attempt to destroy or derail their nuclear program. This fear is reinforced by a steady rhetoric coming out of Israel regarding the ‘military option’ that must have the ayatollahs quaking in their boots. Furthermore, the simulated attack on Iran Israel ran over Greece last June with over 100 F-15s and F16s stoked those fears even more.
Second is next June’s presidential election. Ahmadinejad has lost a lot of his popularity and support because of a combination of his fiery rhetoric and the poor state of the economy. Not only have his provocative and controversial statements drawn international criticism, they have also led to Iran’s further isolation from the international community and have affected the economy. Sometimes it seems as if Ahmadinejad really wants the West to impose another round of sanctions against his country.
The third and final part of the triad is the Iranian economy itself. It is in big trouble and the future promises only further misery. Unemployment is currently running at about 11%, with inflation at somewhere between 20-25%, depending on which statistics you choose. Add to this the fact that oil has tanked over 55% in the last five months and won’t be going up significantly anytime soon. At the moment, it fetches $61 a barrel, but an IMF statement made in August said that $75 was a critical threshold for Iran because getting anything less would result in an unsustainable budget deficit for the government. Furthermore, Iran has a big driving culture but precious little refining capacity in relation to its needs. This leads to the unenviable position where Iran exports huge amounts of oil but has to import huge amounts of refined products.
Another factor in the wrecking of Iran’s economy is the amount of money and resources being plowed into its nuclear, space, and military research and acquisition programs. None of these are cheap and Ahmadinejad is going at them all full tilt. The final nail in the economic coffin are the billions being spent arming Hamas and Hezbollah, running covert operations in Iraq and subsidizing Syria’s recent arms purchases from Russia (more on this in a following article).
Sooner or later something has to give. A bad economy pisses people off and with the upcoming election, Ahmadinejad is in deep trouble. However, nothing stirs up patriotism like a good war and an attack on Israel will certainly provide that. If Ahmadinejad has decided to unleash his forces, he is as good as reelected already.
