Israeli news and conflicts

More information is coming out about the raid and it looks as though the US is the one telling the truth.  The Syrian government is sticking to its story that four children were killed, but local officials said 7 men were killed, with 2 more wounded, and an AP reporter saw 7 adult male bodies that were later buried.  The US also stated that the target of the raid was a cell leader (now deceased) who provided documents, money and arms for insurgents to go over the border into Iraq.

I stated in the first article that I thought the purpose of the raid was to warn off Syria from invading Lebanon and I stand by that.  Even though the immediate objective was to neutralize the cell leader, the timing is still curious as the US knew of this problem for a long time.  I think the US sat back and waited until it could get double its money’s worth.  I call it a double success and now Syria will probably hold off on its plans and wait for the next president to be sworn in before deciding what overt move to make next.

Jerusalem will have its municipal elections soon and in most democratic countries this would mean that a significant percent of the voting population would turn out in order to elect the candidates of their choice.  However, the Arab residents of Jerusalem have a different concept of the electoral process in mind.  The Palestinian Authority’s chief Islamic judge has just published a fatwa banning Jerusalem’s Arabs from participating in the election, and based on their voting habits of the past 41 years, they will very willingly follow the ban.

From the Arab point of view, the problem began in 1967 when Israel captured East Jerusalem from Jordan and later annexed it.  The Arabs have never accepted this situation and part of their way of protesting it has been to boycott the local elections.  They have also strongly discouraged any Arabs from running for office.  The reason for this madness is that they believe that participating in the electoral process will legitimize Israel’s claim to the eastern part of the city.  Those who violate this ban face physical violence from their own people.

Now what is the result of this policy?  It is not a surprise that the local Arabs have virtually no representation and that they come out on the short end of the stick when the local politicians divvy out money and resources for various municipal projects.  When new zoning changes are proposed, there is no real voice to represent the Arab point of view.  Naturally, this leads to anger and resentment.

However, it also leads to the situation where the Arabs complain about discrimination and not receiving an equal amount of municipal services but the very reason this situation is so is because they refuse to participate in the process.  It gets even better.  One Fatah legislator has called for ‘the international community to exert pressure on Israel to halt its arbitrary policies against the Arabs.’  He said this right after he supported the electoral boycott.  Are there words for hypocrite and hypocrisy in Arabic?  Don’t these people understand how foolish this situation is and how they have created the very problem they are currently moaning about?

The democratic process should benefit all people in society equally.  Discrimination can and should be stamped out, but it takes the active participation of all members of society to do so.  If a particular group chooses not to take part in this process, then it is difficult to feel sorry for them or do anything to help them because how can one help those who absolutely refuse to help themselves?  The Jerusalemite Arabs need to wake up, participate and improve their own situation.  Otherwise, they will only have more conflict with their local government and Israel as a whole.

(This is a developing story at the moment of writing.)

US forces conducted a raid on Syrian territory Sunday night using 4 helicopters, which disembarked 10 special forces commandos in a first-of-its-kind action along the Iraqi-Syrian border.  The Syrian government reports that the attack was on a civilian building still under construction and that eight civilians were killed, including four children.  An unnamed US military official claimed that the attack was on al-Qaeda-linked foreign fighters using Syria as a base and safe haven.  Naturally, Syria condemns this action on its sovereign territory as unacceptable foreign aggression.

The US and Iraqi governments have been complaining for years that Syrian territory has been used by insurgents and terrorists as a base to train, rest and hide in safety between attacks on coalition and Iraqi forces in Iraq.  At best, the Syrian government has been turning a blind eye to what has been going on.  At worst, it has been actively helping them along.  In addition to this, Syria has also been used to move supplies into Iraq to arm and resupply insurgent forces all over the eastern half of the country.

At the moment, it is a he-said, she-said affair and the full truth of what really happened may not be known for some time.  However, the timing of this raid is very curious and that deserves further speculation. 

Syria has been playing a dangerous game for several years now and in Bush’s final months, it seems as if he is upping the ante.  Syrian President Bashar al-Assad has been dancing delicately between Iran, the US, Russia, certain members of the EU and Israel.  No one really seems to know what his agenda is and he is taking advantage of the fact that many countries/forces want or need his cooperation.  He wants Russian weapons and needs Iranian money to pay for them.  He wants the Golan Heights returned, but wishes to avoid war with Israel.  He also wants actual or de facto control of Lebanon without getting into a conflict with the US, France, or Israel, and without pissing off his Hezbollah allies (which means angering Iran in the process).  As I stated above, this is a dangerous game but al-Assad seems to be one of the few capable of pulling it off and still keeping his head.

One recent development that has disturbing possibilities is quite likely to have tripped off this raid.  Several days ago, it was reported that Syria had just completed a military semi-encirclement of Lebanon from the Syrian side of the border utilizing at least five divisions with a combined force capable of completely shattering Lebanon’s military in a matter of days.  This move caught the US and Israel by surprise and it is quite possible that this raid was really a reminder to al-Assad to behave.  Let us all hope that he took the hint and will mind his manners.

President Bush is in his last months of office and that makes him a dangerous person regarding countries like Iran.  With nothing to lose because he can no longer be reelected, Bush can now do things that he couldn’t do earlier.  For example, he has recently signed off on significant arms sales to Taiwan and Israel that have spark controversy in some corners.  Now he may finally be ready to attack Iran’s nuclear program after a year of slow but steady build-up of American forces in the region.  In fact, some Iranian officials are so unnerved by this possibility that one has even called for retaliatory attacks on London in order to try and deter Bush from taking action.

This recommendation comes from a senior official in Iran’s Foreign Ministry.  Why did he specifically name London and not just make another of Iran’s seemingly endless threats against Israel?  There are three reasons.  The first is that like the boy who cried wolf too often, threatening Israel has lost its effect.  If not today, Iran would threaten the Jewish state next week over another issue.  Second, Israel’s anti-aircraft and anti-missile defenses are quite formidable and it would be difficult for Iran to crack them now or in the near future.  Last, is the fact that the UK has been a loyal and long-standing partner of the US in Iraq, Afghanistan and in the fight against terrorism.  Threatening the UK elevates this game of brinksmanship to a new level.

Should this threat be taken seriously?  I don’t think anyone does but maybe they should.  Even though none of Iran’s ballistic missiles has the range to reach London, Tehran does have one ace in the hole: suicide bombers.  Who knows how many sleeper cells Iran has in London and the UK?  A simple email, message posted on the Internet or even an SMS can activate them.  It is simple, effective and deadly.  However, one thing the Iranians should take into account is that the Brits are hardened towards terrorist acts and have the courage and will to absorb blows and fight back.  Suicide bombings will not make them back off from their commitments or run away like the Spanish did in Iraq.  They will just piss them off.

If Bush does attack Iran, Israel will almost certainly play a major support if not an active role in it and earn the wrath of Tehran as a result.  The Jewish state would surely take a lot of damage from all the resources Iran can bring to bear but that will not deter the Israelis from participating.  This threat against the UK is just a bluff, something the Iranians are very good at.  In the long run, they cannot afford to attack the Brits on their own soil as London can pay them back economically for many years to come.  Tehran would just have to content itself with shooting down a few US planes, killing a few hundred Israelis and trying to cut off the flow of oil through the Persian Gulf.  The powerlessness of the situation must be giving them ulcers.

If asked if they thought Iran would launch a direct attack on Israel most people would answer, “No way.  They’re not that stupid.”  For sure, such an attack would draw an immediate and potentially catastrophic response from the Israelis.  Israel’s air force is the most powerful in the region and the country possesses nuclear weapons.  In addition, Israel would enjoy the support of many countries for its counterattack (as long as the nukes were kept locked up).  This seems like a no-brainer but there is a triad of evil influences that may tempt the Iranian leadership into a foolish and costly mistake.

It begins with the fear that Israel will attack them first in an attempt to destroy or derail their nuclear program.  This fear is reinforced by a steady rhetoric coming out of Israel regarding the ‘military option’ that must have the ayatollahs quaking in their boots.  Furthermore, the simulated attack on Iran Israel ran over Greece last June with over 100 F-15s and F16s stoked those fears even more.

Second is next June’s presidential election.  Ahmadinejad has lost a lot of his popularity and support because of a combination of his fiery rhetoric and the poor state of the economy.  Not only have his provocative and controversial statements drawn international criticism, they have also led to Iran’s further isolation from the international community and have affected the economy.  Sometimes it seems as if Ahmadinejad really wants the West to impose another round of sanctions against his country.

The third and final part of the triad is the Iranian economy itself.  It is in big trouble and the future promises only further misery.  Unemployment is currently running at about 11%, with inflation at somewhere between 20-25%, depending on which statistics you choose.  Add to this the fact that oil has tanked over 55% in the last five months and won’t be going up significantly anytime soon.  At the moment, it fetches $61 a barrel, but an IMF statement made in August said that $75 was a critical threshold for Iran because getting anything less would result in an unsustainable budget deficit for the government.  Furthermore, Iran has a big driving culture but precious little refining capacity in relation to its needs.  This leads to the unenviable position where Iran exports huge amounts of oil but has to import huge amounts of refined products.

Another factor in the wrecking of Iran’s economy is the amount of money and resources being plowed into its nuclear, space, and military research and acquisition programs.  None of these are cheap and Ahmadinejad is going at them all full tilt.  The final nail in the economic coffin are the billions being spent arming Hamas and Hezbollah, running covert operations in Iraq and subsidizing Syria’s recent arms purchases from Russia (more on this in a following article).

Sooner or later something has to give.  A bad economy pisses people off and with the upcoming election, Ahmadinejad is in deep trouble.  However, nothing stirs up patriotism like a good war and an attack on Israel will certainly provide that.  If Ahmadinejad has decided to unleash his forces, he is as good as reelected already.

There has been a lot of speculation lately about the possibility of Israel launching a pre-emptive air strike on Iran in an attempt to either destroy or at least set back its nuclear program. New purchases of deep-penetrating bombs, jet aircraft and submarines have greatly improved the Jewish state’s offensive capabilities but there may be a spoiler in the works. There are ominous signs that Iran is planning a pre-emptive strike on Israel’s pre-emptive strike. Is Iran actually capable of such a daring action? Would they dare if they could?

There are two direct ways that Iran can attack Israel: either with missiles or aircraft. Iran has been working feverishly on its ballistic missile systems and has a number of working models in production. At present, about 100 of them have sufficient range to reach Israel. However, since Iran doesn’t possess nuclear weapons yet, it would have to rely on conventional warheads that don’t do that much damage. Then there is the accuracy factor. Can those 100 missiles hit Israeli airbases accurately and hard enough to cripple the Jewish state’s air force? It is highly unlikely, especially since the accuracy of these missiles cannot be independently verified. This threat, if used alone, can be written off like Saddam’s Scuds.

What about the Iranian air force? Is it up to the task? It doesn’t seem probable at the moment. Iran had a pretty pitiful air force left over from the Iran-Iraq War, but it has been developing its own fighter planes since then and has begun producing some models, though details on aircraft performance and numbers are vague at best. What is more worrying is that there are reports that Iran has signed deals with Russia and China to buy advanced fighters from both countries. Some reports put the combined contracts at nearly 300 new planes, which would make Iran’s air force the largest and most modern in the Middle East. Russia and China hotly deny these reports, but it would not be the first time these countries have denied arms dealings that ended up being true or at least partially true.

The real danger to Israel, I believe, is from a combination attack. Iran’s air force certainly isn’t ready for an all-out confrontation with Israel’s because its older planes are in the process of being modified, and its orders from Russia and China, as well as the production of its indigenous designs, are spread out over the next four or five years. The Iranians need to wait in order to gather more strength, but with the Bush administration in its final months they may not have that luxury or at least feel that they do not. Therefore, the only viable opportunity for Iran is to launch a multi-pronged attack using its air force, ballistic missiles and Hezbollah/Hamas proxies to simultaneously slam the Israelis from different directions.

But will they dare to do it? The next article discusses this in more detail.